Beat Facebook is an application designed to calculate an approximate timeframe of when a given website will reach the current traffic levels of Facebook. This app uses historical data of website’s past growth (using Amazon’s Alexa data) and applies the exact patterns in several different algorithms and projections. Furthermore, this app is the most optimistic prediction app you will find - it assumes that any given website will repeat the past growth repeatedly until it beats Facebook. In reality only a few web sites, would be able to pull this off. Please use it as an entertaining tool only and do not make investment decisions based on projections of this app.
The calculation methods
Using the fetched data, the app calculates an average monthly growth, both in gained reach and percentage of growth.
Geometric Pattern
Once we calculate a month by month growth or decline by percentage of reach gained or lost, we apply the exact same pattern for future traffic calculations over and over again until a given website beats Facebook in worldwide reach.
Arithmetic Pattern
Calculated on a month by month growth or decline by percentage of reach gained or lost only growth is calculated by actual gained or lost reach.
Arithmetic Average
An average monthly growth in reach is calculated and then applied by adding it again and again until a given website beats Facebook.
Limitations
Beatfb will only fetch historic traffic data going back in time until it hits a month with no traffic at all and will consider this month as a starting point. Also, we do not have access to data older than 2007, so it will be the starting point for any website older than this. Basically, if a website had more traffic in 2007 than it has now, we will deem it a declining website. For websites like these, we are going to design a more pessimistic app - Website Death Meter. Follow us to get notified when we release the app.
Suggest an algorithm
We’d love to add more algorithms to the app and we welcome suggestions. If you have an algorithm in mind, please leave a comment under this post.
